While most Massachusetts residents say the national economy is still in bad shape, they are becoming increasingly optimistic that the economy will improve in the coming year, according to the latest survey from the Western New England College Polling Institute.
The telephone survey of 522 adults, conducted October 18-22, found that 88 percent rated the national economy as “very bad” or “fairly bad.” But nearly half of the statewide sample – 45 percent – said they expect the economy to get better over the next 12 months. Only a third of adults made the same prediction last February, the last time the Polling Institute surveyed Massachusetts residents about the economy.
In addition, 30 percent also said they expect their personal financial position to improve over the next 12 months, compared to 22 percent in February. The poll has a margin of error of +/- four percent.
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The increase in economic confidence may not translate into robust spending during the upcoming holiday shopping season. Half of those surveyed said they would spend the same amount on gifts this year as last year, and 47 percent said they would spend less.
 “Massachusetts residents are hopeful about the economy, but they are also very cautious,” said Tim Vercellotti, associate professor of political science and co-director of the Western New England College Polling Institute. “They’re not necessarily in the mood to start spending again.”
The survey found that 44 percent rated the national economy as “very bad,” and 44 percent said the economy is “fairly bad.” As pessimistic as those numbers sound, the percent offering the most negative view has improved since last November, when 69 percent of Massachusetts residents rated the economy as “very bad” and 26 percent rated it “fairly bad.”
In the latest survey, adults with a high school education or less were most likely to hold a negative view of the economy, with 60 percent rating it “very bad.” Senior citizens were most likely to offer a positive assessment, with 18 percent of those 65 and older saying the economy is “fairly good.”
Optimism that the economy will bounce back was greatest among those with a college degree or annual household incomes of $100,000 or higher. More than half of adults in each category said they expect the economy to improve in the next 12 months.
Sharp differences emerged along partisan lines among registered voters. Fifty-four percent of registered Democrats said they expect the economy will improve over the next 12 months, compared to 43 percent of independent voters and 28 percent of Republicans.
Views about changes in personal finances over the next 12 months varied by age and income. As age increased, so did pessimism. Thirty-four percent of adults ages 30 to 49 said they expect their financial position to get better during that period, compared to 24 percent of those ages 50 to 64, and 18 percent of those ages 65 and older.
Optimism, on the other hand, increased with income level. Only 27 percent of people with annual household incomes of under $35,000 said they expect their personal financial position to improve over the next 12 months, compared to 33 percent of those with annual incomes of $100,000 or more.
But optimism has its limits. Only two percent of those completing the survey said they plan to spend more on gifts this holiday season compared to last year, with those saying they would spend the same or less accounting for 97 percent of the sample. Even among those numbers, however, there were signs of improvement. While 47 percent said they would spend less this year, 60 percent gave that answer a year ago.
“Some people who cut back last year may be deciding to hold their spending steady this year, instead of cutting back further,” Vercellotti said.
Groups most likely to say they would reduce their spending this year included women and individuals in the lowest income bracket. Fifty-three percent of women said they would spend less this year, compared to 41 percent of men. Sixty-eight percent of those with annual household incomes of $35,000 or less said they would be cutting back, compared to 29 percent of those with incomes of $100,000 or more.
METHODOLOGY
The Western New England College Polling Institute conducted telephone interviews with 522 adults ages 18 and older drawn from across Massachusetts using random-digit-dialing October 18-22. The sample yielded 468 adults who said they were registered to vote in Massachusetts. Unless otherwise noted, most of the figures in this release are based on the statewide sample of all adults. The data were weighted to reflect the adult population of Massachusetts by gender, race and age. Complete results of the poll are available online at www.wnec.edu/news.
All surveys are subject to sampling error, which is the expected probable difference between interviewing everyone in a population versus a scientific sampling drawn from that population. The sampling error for a sample of 522 adults is +/- 4 percent, at a 95 percent confidence interval. Thus if 50 percent of adults said they expected the national economy to get better over the next 12 months, one would be 95 percent sure that the true figure would be between 46 percent and 54 percent (50 percent +/- 4 percent) had all Massachusetts adults been interviewed, rather than just a sample. The sampling error for the sample of 468 registered voters is +/- 4.5 percent. Sampling error increases as the sample size decreases, so statements based on various population subgroups are subject to more error than are statements based on the total sample. Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion studies, such as non-response, question wording, or context effects.
Established in 2005, the Western New England College Polling Institute conducts research on issues of importance to Massachusetts residents and communities. The Institute provides the College’s faculty and students with valuable opportunities to participate in public opinion research. |
